Discover the Latest Chart Contenders: The Contenders is a compelling midweek column dedicated to exploring artists striving for the pinnacle of the Billboard charts and the innovative strategies they implement to achieve success. In this week’s edition, we dive into the thrilling competition for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated January 25, 2025, focusing on whether the latest blockbuster from Bad Bunny will seize the top position or if it will be outpaced by the release of a much-anticipated live album from Taylor Swift.

Bad Bunny’s Latest Release: Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): The highly anticipated new album from Puerto Rican sensation Bad Bunny may have already claimed the No. 1 spot on the charts had it enjoyed a complete tracking week. However, due to its release on Sunday, January 5, it only captured two days of tracking data, resulting in a total of 122,000 units sold during its first week. This placed it just behind Lil Baby‘s album WHAM, which debuted at No. 1 with 140,000 units. The competition is fierce, showcasing the dynamic landscape of today’s music industry.

The positive aspect for Fotos is its remarkable growth trajectory. Although the initial streaming numbers for the album were solid but not extraordinary, they have consistently increased day by day. This is an unusual trend for a new release from a well-established artist, leading to the album capturing the top three positions on both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA list. This surge is largely driven by the viral hit “DtMF,” which is also poised to compete for a top spot on the Billboard Hot 100 in the upcoming week.

The explosive streaming success of Fotos, combined with the advantage of a full week of tracking and an extensive promotional push—such as a recent Subway Busking performance alongside Jimmy Fallon—suggests that the album is likely to perform even better in its second week. It is expected to align more closely with the opening week numbers of Bunny’s previous album, 2023’s Nadie Sabie Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, which debuted at the top of the Billboard 200 with 184,000 units sold.

Taylor Swift’s Enchanting Live Album: Lover (Live in Paris) (Republic): The City of Lover concert performed by Taylor Swift in Paris in 2019 has earned a cherished place in the hearts of her fans, known as Swifties. This special live show featured intimate acoustic renditions of standout tracks from her 2019 album Lover. It also marked one of the last full live performances by Swift for several years, following the cancellation of her planned Lover Fest mini-tour due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The memorable concert was broadcast as an ABC live special in 2020, later followed by the limited-edition double-LP release in 2023 titled Lover (Live From Paris), which includes eight captivating performances from that iconic evening.

This limited release was capped at only 13,000 copies and quickly sold out, achieving a No. 58 debut on the Billboard 200. However, on January 7, it was re-released as a 72-hour exclusive on her official webstore, and this time it is anticipated to sell significantly more copies. The impact on the upcoming Billboard 200 will hinge on the shipping timeline of these copies, which her webstore indicated would ship “on or before January 20.” With many dedicated Swifties already receiving their copies, the album stands a strong chance to become a formidable contender next week.

Could Taylor Swift’s live album surpass Bad Bunny’s rising blockbuster? Despite her impressive record of 14 No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200, Swift has yet to achieve the top spot with a live album, with her 2020 release Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions, which peaked at No. 3, being the closest. Considering the album’s popularity among fans, their passion for collecting her records—illustrated by Taylor having five of the top ten best-selling vinyl LPs of 2024—and the long-awaited release following a half-decade, it’s challenging to predict against her success in 2025.

Lil Baby’s Recent Hit: WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): Last week’s chart-topping album appears poised for a decline during its second week. The opening week saw an impressive 140,000 units sold, bolstered by direct-to-consumer sales (both CD and digital formats), contributing to 50,000 of those initial units. However, it’s common for an album’s second week to see a significant drop in sales. On streaming platforms, Lil Baby’s album is already showing signs of slipping; while it still appears on the Apple Music chart, only one song—featuring Future and Young Thug—is in the top 20. Additionally, it has only two entries in the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart. Such declines are typical for major releases, highlighting how extraordinary Bad Bunny’s Fotos is performing. The album is expected to receive a boost from the recent release of its deluxe edition, which includes four bonus tracks and was previously exclusive to purchase on the Motown webstore.