Presented the glacial price at which federal antitrust litigation moves, the U.S. Section of Justice’s historic lawsuit in opposition to Are living Country and its wholly owned subsidiary Ticketmaster is anticipated to look at quite a few years to wind its way through the authorized strategy no matter regardless of whether it is completely adjudicated or the reside-occasion Goliath agrees to make alterations to its enterprise, which the government typically terms “behavioral solutions.”

And even though it is clearly far as well early to predict how the circumstance will engage in out, lawful pro and antitrust legal skilled Lawrence J. White from New York University’s Stern University of Business states the possible winners and losers have now been mainly pre-identified primarily based mainly on hints uncovered in the 128-net web page grievance that the DOJ filed May possibly 23 in U.S. District Court docket in the Southern District of New York.

“The corporations outlined in the grievance as staying the most harmed by anti-competitive habits are ordinarily the same corporations that stand the most to acquire in the remedy,” White states.

In the predicament of Reside Nation, the winners will very most probably be the company’s key reside efficiency promotion rival, AEG Offers secondary-marketplace ticketing competitor SeatGeek and a handful of important independent promoters like Chicago’s Jam Productions. The losers would most probably be Reside Nation Irving Azoff and Tim Leiweke’s place proprietor, management and hospitality enterprise, Oak Perspective Group — which the DOJ alleges “has described itself as a ‘hammer’ and ‘protect[or]’ for Stay Nation” — as effectively as, possibly, important artist management organizations and talent organizations, relying on the government’s answer for far additional aggressive ticket pricing.

“The government tends to depend on private organizations to have out its policy aims all through the solution period of an antitrust circumstance,” describes White, pointing toward the original consent decree drafted about the 2010 merger of Live Nation and Ticketmaster. That settlement unsuccessfully propped up two non-public corporations — AEG and Comcast Spectacor — to serve as competitors to Ticketmaster.

Irrespective of regardless of whether the DOJ wins in court docket or finishes up settling with Are living Country, White suggests it will lean on considerable providers to support with enforcement of the ruling. As Are living Nation’s only considerable competitor for ticketing and concert marketing, AEG, which owns AXS Ticketing, is an noticeable choice as a DOJ husband or wife considering that of the company’s considerable scale, which will be important for the DOJ’s extended-shot intention to lowered ticket promoting costs. (The DOJ is regarded as to have interviewed added than 100 persons now from the reside-music field as aspect of its the most recent antitrust investigation into Are living Country.)

In a Could 23 push launch that declared the lawsuit filing, Legal skilled Common Merrick Garland described, “We allege that Dwell Country depends on unlawful, anti-competitive carry out to training its monopolistic handle about the stay-activities marketplace in the United States at the price tag of lovers, artists, scaled-down promoters and venue operators.” He contends that expanding levels of competitors amid Live Nation’s ticketing rivals and in the artist marketing spot will lower the confront worth promoting costs of tickets.

Prior to the 2010 merger of Live Nation and Ticketmaster, 4 or 5 ticketing companies have been capable of competing with the latter at the arena stage. In 2024, only two continue becoming: AXS and SeatGeek, the secondary net web page that also occurs to personal 1 of the only principal ticketing products capable of servicing main arenas and stadiums.

In a statement introduced to Billboard, SeatGeek claimed, “We are hopeful that the Division of Justice’s antitrust lawsuit to crack up the Are living Country-Ticketmaster monopoly will restore truthful market place level of competition to stay enjoyment.” On the concert marketing front, there are significantly a great deal significantly less major impartial promoters now than there have been prior to 2010 and only a handful capable of touring major arena acts across the area. In addition to Jam Productions, they involve Nashville’s Outback Concert events and Another World Enjoyment in the San Francisco Bay Location. All 3 promoters declined to remark for this tale.

In a Might 31 letter to his employees, AEG chairman/CEO Jay Marciano outlined how the DOJ could make concert marketing fairer and travel down the price of ticketing by dismantling Dwell Nation’s “flywheel” compact enterprise model, which is cited in the DOJ’s criticism and described in its May possibly 23 press launch as “a self-reinforcing business model that captures fees and profits from concert admirers and sponsorship, makes use of that earnings to lock up artists to distinctive promotion offers and then utilizes its powerful cache of are living articles to indicator venues into very long-time period distinctive ticketing discounts, thereby starting up the cycle all around yet again.”

Marciano’s letter described Dwell Nation’s flywheel solution “deploys the excessive income of its ticketing monopoly to outspend what the concert marketplace can profitably maintain.”

Less than this theory, ticket charges would drop if Reside Country was prevented from employing its other income sources to overpay artists and compete with other promoters supplying artists an 85/15 or a 90/10 split on ticket income.

While the principle is not extensively accepted by most main experience brokers or managers — IAG executive vp/head of globe-wide tunes Jarred Arfa calls it “unrealistic” and “illogical” — it is attaining level of recognition amongst big indie promoters and DOJ legal pros, sources inform Billboard. White notes that no matter if the govt settles or requires Ticketmaster to trial will rely on “the time and assets the DOJ desires to expend on the case and the evidence against Live Nation it has gathered.”