Spotify Surpasses $400: Key Updates on Music Stocks

Spotify has experienced a remarkable surge, buoyed by a wave of post-election market enthusiasm, reaching an impressive closing price of over $400 for the first time on Friday, November 8. This milestone values the prominent music-streaming platform at nearly $80.5 billion. The company’s stock, which finished at $400.68, marked a significant weekly increase of 4.1%, with an all-time high of $405.88 reached during trading. This impressive performance reflects Spotify’s resilience and adaptability in a competitive industry, attracting both new and existing investors eager to capitalize on its ongoing growth and future prospects.

Hailing from Stockholm, Sweden, Spotify’s stock has skyrocketed by an astounding 113% in 2024, allowing it to surpass Universal Music Group (UMG) as the most valuable entity in the music industry. In 2023, as investor sentiment began to wane concerning high-growth streaming companies lacking profitability, Spotify executed two critical rounds of layoffs. These strategic moves reduced operational costs while simultaneously ensuring continued subscriber growth and revenue increases. As Spotify prepares to release its third-quarter earnings on November 12, market analysts are keenly observing whether the company can sustain its impressive momentum. In fact, Deutsche Bank has raised its Spotify price target from $430 to $440, indicating positive expectations ahead of the earnings report.

Following the election of Donald Trump on November 5, U.S. stock markets experienced a substantial rally this week. This enthusiasm was further fueled by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on November 7 to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. On Friday, the Nasdaq composite achieved an all-time high, closing at 19,286.78, reflecting a remarkable increase of 5.7%. Similarly, the S&P 500 rose by 4.7%, finishing at a record high of 5,995.54. In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite Index improved by 5.5% to reach 3,452.30, while South Korea’s KOSPI composite index saw a modest increase of 0.7% to 2,561.15. However, in the U.K., the FTSE 100 experienced a decline of 1.3%, closing at 8,072.39.

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The Billboard Global Music Index, which tracks 20 major companies in the music industry, gained 2.4% this week, reaching an all-time high of 2,043.02. This achievement brings the index’s year-to-date gain to an impressive 33.2%. Within the index, 13 stocks registered positive performance, while six faced declines, and one remained unchanged. This upward trajectory highlights the resilience and growth potential of the music industry amidst fluctuating market dynamics.

iHeartMedia emerged as the top-performing music stock of the week, surging 16.7% to $2.44 following an announcement regarding a significant restructuring of its retiring debt. The company aims to save $200 million by 2025 through strategic cost reductions and the integration of innovative technology. During an earnings call on Thursday, CEO Bob Pittman emphasized the pivotal role of technology in enhancing operational efficiency. He stated, “Technology is the key to increasing our operating leverage and is a constant focus for us. It allows us to speed up processes, streamline legacy systems, and enables our team to create more, better, and faster.” Despite a year-to-date decline of 8.6%, iHeartMedia’s stock has seen a remarkable increase of 180% since May 24, showcasing its potential for recovery and growth.

LiveOne also made headlines by gaining 15.6% to $0.89 per share after announcing a 14% revenue increase, totaling $32.6 million. Furthermore, the company reported a remarkable 27% increase in paid memberships, reaching 645,000 in its fiscal second quarter ending September 30. In addition to LiveOne, Reservoir Media also enjoyed a positive week, experiencing a gain of 9.1% to reach $9.00. These advancements reflect the growing popularity and demand for music streaming services in the market.

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On the live events front, Live Nation shares increased by 5.1% to $123.02, benefiting from a boost following the election results. Although the concert promoter is currently embroiled in a lawsuit initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice, analysts suggest that new appointments under the Trump administration could lead to a more favorable outcome. The gains in Live Nation’s stock were not solely attributed to political factors; Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $140 from $120, citing a combination of robust underlying consumer demand and strong artist incentives to tour. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank also adjusted its price target for Live Nation, increasing it from $122 to $130, reflecting positive sentiment surrounding the company.

K-pop stocks experienced a notable surge this week, despite HYBE and SM Entertainment reporting significant declines in profit last quarter, largely due to reduced recorded music revenues. HYBE shares surged by 6.4%, even after the company disclosed a staggering 99% drop in net income. Similarly, SM Entertainment saw an increase of 7.2%, even as it announced a 96% decline in quarterly net profit alongside a 9% revenue decrease and a 36% drop in recorded music revenue. Investor optimism may have been sparked by SM Entertainment’s announcement of plans to launch a new girl group in 2025, which would be the first since the debut of aespa five years ago, accompanied by an anticipated single and album release in the first quarter.

JYP Entertainment, which has yet to disclose its quarterly earnings, saw its stock price skyrocket by 12.6%. Meanwhile, YG Entertainment continued its upward trend, rising by 6.3%, accumulating a remarkable 17.6% gain over the past three weeks. YG’s recent success has been attributed to the popularity of “APT” by ROSÉ featuring Bruno Mars, which is currently dominating both the Billboard Global 200 and Billboard Global Excl. U.S. charts, showcasing the significant impact of high-profile collaborations on stock performance in the music industry.

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Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) shares increased by 2.4% to $11.39 as anticipation builds for the company’s third-quarter earnings report scheduled for November 12. Bernstein has initiated coverage of TME with an optimistic price target of $14, while Barclays has also begun coverage with an “overweight” rating and an even higher price target of $16. These positive projections indicate a strong belief in TME’s future growth potential within the competitive music streaming landscape.

During this week, German concert promoter CTS Eventim was the weakest performer among music stocks, falling by 10.4% to 87.70 euros ($94.05). The company is set to release its third-quarter results on November 21, which will be closely monitored for insights into its financial health. In contrast, Cumulus Media saw its stock decline by 6.4% to $0.88, compounding a previous week’s loss of 19%. Similarly, SiriusXM’s stock dipped 5.5% to $26.13, reflecting broader challenges facing some segments of the music industry amidst shifting market dynamics.

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Market, Billboard Global Music Index

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Market, Billboard Global Music Index

Created with Datawrapper

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