The global music copyright landscape has seen a tremendous surge in value, reaching an impressive $45.5 billion in 2023, marking an 11% increase from the previous year. This insightful data comes from economist Will Page, who first assessed the value of music copyright revenues back in 2014, when it stood at only $25 billion. This trajectory suggests that music copyright could potentially double in value within a decade, underscoring the growing importance of intellectual property in the music industry and its impact on artists, producers, and consumers alike.

In 2023, record labels commanded the largest segment of the global music copyright market, with revenues totaling $28.5 billion, an impressive 21% growth compared to 2022. The shift towards streaming services, which saw a 10.4% increase, now represents the predominant source of income for these labels. Moreover, sales of physical music formats have experienced a remarkable resurgence, rising by 13.4%, with vinyl record sales leading the charge, posting a 15.4% increase. Page predicts that vinyl sales are on the verge of surpassing CD sales globally, a significant milestone considering the enduring popularity of CDs in regions like Japan and Asia. He anticipates that this trend will catapult vinyl into a $3 billion industry by the time of the next summer Olympics in 2028.

Collective management organizations (CMOs), which act as intermediaries to collect royalties for songwriters and publishers, reported revenues of $12.9 billion, reflecting an 11% rise from the previous year. A notable trend is the increased revenue from live performances, which now surpasses the income generated from general licensing for public performances. Furthermore, CMOs are now collecting more from digital platforms than from traditional broadcast and radio mediums, highlighting the significant shift in how music is consumed today. A decade prior, digital revenue constituted a mere 5% of total collections, while broadcast accounted for a substantial 50% of revenues, indicating a transformative change in the music distribution landscape.

In a notable shift within the industry, music publishers have begun to earn more from direct licensing agreements than through traditional CMO channels. These royalties stem from a mix of stable income sources, such as sync and grand rights, alongside rapidly growing digital income streams, as noted by Page. The preference for direct licensing stems from its expedited payment process, allowing artists to receive their earnings more swiftly. For instance, a song that gains popularity in mid-March typically takes 201 days to compensate the artist and a staggering 383 days for the songwriter. Furthermore, it’s crucial to recognize that a significant portion, approximately one-third, of the songwriter’s revenue may be diminished by transaction costs tied to administration fees levied by various CMOs.

Despite some challenges faced by the music copyright sector during the pandemic—particularly in public performance revenues—music has shown remarkable resilience and growth since 2020, now surpassing the brick-and-mortar cinema industry. As of 2023, the music sector is a staggering 38% larger than cinema, a dramatic change from 2019 when cinema was 33% larger than music. Over the past four years, music has expanded by an impressive 44%, while cinema has contracted by 21%. It’s important to note that the disparity between music and cinema revenues is even more pronounced; Page’s music copyright figures reflect trade revenue that directly benefits rights holders and creators, whereas cinema revenue figures represent consumer spending. According to industry analysis, only half of the $33.2 billion generated from cinema box office revenues in 2023 is allocated to distribution costs.

Page’s comprehensive report provides an in-depth look at the total revenues generated from both master recordings and musical compositions. He ensures that double-counting is avoided—such as mechanical royalties that might be reported as revenue by both record labels and music publishers—and fills in gaps present in more narrow industry analyses provided by organizations like the IFPI, CISAC, and the International Federation of Music Publishers. This meticulous approach allows for a clearer understanding of the financial landscape surrounding music copyright.

Page emphasizes the importance of understanding the potential threats to the music industry, such as the rise of AI. He suggests that anyone looking to capture the attention of policymakers must recognize the significant stakes involved, particularly in the context of the evolving music landscape driven by technology.

The globalization of music has opened up new opportunities for large Western music companies, allowing them to tap into diverse markets. However, Page’s report also examines how developed streaming markets benefit artists from less affluent countries. For instance, while North America and Europe, regions characterized by subscription-based revenue, contribute to 80% of streaming value growth, they represent only 48% of the increase in streaming volume. Conversely, Latin America and Asia (excluding Japan), where streaming platforms earn significantly less per listener, accounted for 12% of the value growth, while a remarkable 46% of the streaming activity gains originated from these regions.

For artists hailing from Latin America and Asia, audiences in markets where streaming royalties are higher can prove to be immensely lucrative. For instance, the nearly 0 million in streaming revenues earned by Colombian artists like J. Balvin and Shakira in the U.S. is six times the value of those streams in their home country. This substantial boost of $78 million exceeds the total worth of the entire $74 million Colombian recorded music industry. Similarly, streams from Mexican artists in the U.S. generated $350 million in 2023, which is a remarkable 0 million more than if those streams had originated from Mexico.

Page highlights that Mexico and Colombia are merely two examples of countries successfully exporting their music to a larger market. In 2023, he co-authored a paper discussing the concept of “globalization,” which refers to music created for local markets in native languages that achieves popularity on global streaming platforms. He notes that there is a wealth of untapped potential across South and Central America, with audiences worldwide increasingly turning their attention to these new “glocalists,” showcasing the vibrant diversity of the global music scene.