His Career: Understanding Its Implications
Lil Baby has achieved an impressive milestone by securing the No. 1 album in the United States for the fourth time in just four attempts this decade. This consistent success underscores his significant impact on the music industry and his growing popularity among fans.
His latest release, WHAM, which stands for Who Hard as Me, has debuted at the top of the Billboard 200 chart this week (dated Jan. 18), amassing an impressive 140,000 first-week equivalent album units. This album follows the successful No. 1 launches of his previous works: 2020’s My Turn, 2021’s The Voice of the Heroes (in collaboration with Lil Durk), and 2022’s It’s Only Me. However, it’s worth noting that WHAM recorded the lowest initial numbers among the four albums, with just one track, “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” featuring Future and Young Thug, making its way into the Billboard Hot 100’s top 40 at No. 16.
The debut of WHAM raises intriguing questions about Lil Baby’s current status in the music industry and what strategic directions he should consider for his upcoming album releases. The staff at Billboard delve into these topics and share their insights below.
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1. WHAM achieves a strong debut at No. 1 with 140,000 equivalent album units. On a scale from 1-10, how satisfied should Lil Baby feel with this first-week performance?
Kyle Denis: I would rate it an impressive 8. The ability to pull in six figures for an opening week is certainly commendable, especially considering that Lil Baby has consistently achieved this with his last three studio albums. The numbers for WHAM become even more impressive when factoring in that the album does not feature any of the three prior standalone singles he released leading up to this launch – namely “5AM,” “Insecurities,” and “Touchdown.” Despite the mixed reviews online from both casual listeners and dedicated fans, the first-week performance of WHAM stands as a significant victory for Lil Baby.
Carl Lamarre: I would give it a perfect 10. If I were Lil Baby, I would feel ecstatic because the general sentiment online was not particularly favorable towards my release. Moreover, the fact that I narrowly surpassed Bad Bunny, who released his album just two days after mine, adds to the excitement. Lil Baby may not be the dominant force he once was after his groundbreaking album My Turn took the industry by storm in 2020, but there’s no valid reason for someone like LiAngelo Ball, who is relatively new to the scene, to attract more attention than a well-established superstar like Lil Baby. Despite these concerns, he has emerged victorious, and that is what truly counts.
Jason Lipshutz: I would rate it a 7. Releasing an album at the very beginning of the year can be risky, as audiences often shift their focus from holiday music back to new releases. Lil Baby took a gamble by positioning himself as the main attraction once the new year began, and he has once again achieved a No. 1 debut. However, it’s important to note that this debut saw a lower equivalent album unit total compared to 2022’s It’s Only Me, despite having a tracklist that is only about half the length of its predecessor, which may have impacted streaming numbers somewhat. Thus, achieving a six-figure debut is still quite remarkable.
Michael Saponara: I believe he should feel like he’s at a 9. To outsell Bad Bunny and debut at No. 1 after releasing singles in 2024 that weren’t generating significant buzz is indeed a major win for him.
Andrew Unterberger: I would rate it at least an 8. While it’s possible that the outcome might have differed had Bad Bunny been afforded a full first week of streaming, Lil Baby’s ability to secure the top spot despite Benito’s late push—and also outperforming SZA’s revitalized SOS—is a notable accomplishment that highlights the rapper’s enduring appeal in the industry.
2. The highly anticipated collaboration “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” featuring Future and Young Thug stands out as the top debut on the Billboard Hot 100, entering the top 20. Will this track have lasting appeal, or does it primarily owe its success to its impressive guest lineup?
Kyle Denis: I don’t foresee this as a long-lasting hit. It feels somewhat lackluster, especially given that this marks Young Thug’s first verse after his release from prison. I would be surprised if any of the tracks from WHAM manage to achieve the same level of success as tracks like “We Paid” or “Sum 2 Prove.” Perhaps the upcoming album from Dominique will have better luck in that regard.
Carl Lamarre: The more I listen to it, the more I appreciate it, but I doubt it has the endurance to be a long-lasting hit. Future’s recent success with three No. 1 albums in 2024, combined with Thug’s first post-jail verse, should have been enough to propel any song to the top, yet I feel that neither of them truly delivered their best performance this time around. It feels more like a practice session rather than a full-fledged showcase of their talents.
Jason Lipshutz: While it may not reach a higher peak on the Hot 100 than its current position, I believe it will endure. “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” gained attention as Young Thug’s return to the music scene, and both Lil Baby and Future match that level of urgency on the track. The beat, co-produced by Wheezy, is intense and propulsive, allowing all three artists to showcase their skills without interruption for a chorus. This lack of a hook may limit its crossover potential, but I predict “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” will continue to accumulate millions of streams and dominate hip-hop playlists in the months to come.
Michael Saponara: Young Thug’s first major verse since his release from jail, combined with a reunion with Future, creates a recipe for commercial success. Lil Baby capitalized on this moment, creating a solid collaborative effort among the Atlanta trio; however, I doubt it will have significant staying power in the Hot 100’s top 25.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a solid track, and I don’t think it will completely fade from public consciousness, but I’m not convinced it has enough of a hook—whether in terms of a catchy chorus or a cohesive narrative—to ensure listeners will keep returning to it. Nonetheless, it’s undoubtedly great to hear these three voices collaborate on a track once again.
3. Bad Bunny’s new album Debí Tirar Más Fotos debuts just below Lil Baby’s with 122,000 units in an incomplete first week. Considering this album was released on a Sunday, two days into the tracking week, does it have a solid chance of climbing to No. 1 on next week’s chart?
Kyle Denis: Absolutely! Bad Bunny has delivered a compelling project that is resonating with listeners, as several tracks from the album are evolving into breakout streaming hits globally. His recent engagement in various media—from a Rolling Stone interview and an NYC subway takeover to co-hosting The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon—has elevated his visibility, which will undoubtedly enhance the second-week performance of Debí Tirar Más Fotos. Additionally, he is gaining positive media attention for his innovative ticketing strategy for his upcoming Puerto Rico residency.
Furthermore, this record has already garnered significantly more positive word of mouth compared to his previous LP, 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, which might indicate that the momentum for DTMF is just beginning to build.
Carl Lamarre: I don’t anticipate Baby’s album holding onto the No. 1 position for another week. The fact that Bad Bunny was only 18,000 units shy of claiming the top spot after an incomplete week is very telling and concerning for Lil Baby and his team. There’s significantly more buzz surrounding Bunny’s album due to its storytelling, sonic experimentation, and clever rollout. The buzz generated by Bad Bunny’s Rolling Stone interview and his recent subway performance with Jimmy Fallon appears to resonate more with audiences compared to Lil Baby’s interviews and late-night appearances.
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely! If you examine daily streaming charts, it’s evident that Bad Bunny’s new album is not only performing well but seems to be gaining momentum, with the infectious track “DtMF” leading a collection of songs that will likely climb the Hot 100 chart next week. The Sunday release prevented Bad Bunny from achieving a No. 1 debut this time, but he’s well-positioned to take that spot next week, especially as there are no new releases of Lil Baby’s magnitude to compete with Debí Tirar Más Fotos.
Michael Saponara: Yes, Bad Bunny should achieve another strong performance next week as tracks are still streaming well across digital service providers. However, Mac Miller’s posthumous album, Balloonerism, is set to release on Friday (Jan. 17), which could potentially disrupt Bad Bunny’s bid for the No. 1 spot if he manages to claim it.
Andrew Unterberger: Absolutely, it should definitely be viewed as a frontrunner to capture the top position in the coming weeks. It’s exciting to see Bad Bunny on track for another enduring album, especially during the winter months.
4. Despite Lil Baby’s massive success, his career momentum has somewhat waned since the breakthrough of My Turn in 2020. Does the release and initial reception of WHAM instill confidence in his ability to regain that momentum?
Kyle Denis: My primary concern regarding WHAM is that Lil Baby seems hesitant to break away from the formula he established with his earlier mixtapes and first three albums. While the record is not a poor collection of songs, it lacks standout moments that could elevate it further. Essentially, WHAM suggests that Lil Baby is content with not fully embracing the role of “generation leader” that many envisioned for him back in 2020. I believe he possesses the talent to turn his career around, but it may ultimately depend on his satisfaction with his current position.
Carl Lamarre: For Lil Baby to secure back-to-back No. 1 albums, even when the music may not be hitting the mark, speaks volumes about his dedicated fanbase. They continue to support him, largely due to the monumental effort he put into My Turn. In 2020, he achieved what many artists fail to accomplish in today’s rap landscape: dominating both the charts and the hearts of listeners. This is why fans of artists like Roddy Ricch still hold onto hope, as he accomplished a similar feat with his debut album in 2019. However, like Ricch, Lil Baby may be nearing a critical juncture as he has struggled to connect with audiences in his two latest projects.
Jason Lipshutz: Lil Baby represents an intriguing case within the landscape of 2020s hip-hop, where an artist can achieve multiple No. 1 albums and top 10 Hot 100 hits, maintain a consistent presence on New Music Friday through solo efforts and collaborations, command a substantial touring audience, and yet still feel a sense of stagnation. In recent years, he has relied heavily on a successful formula but has not taken the artistic risks necessary for growth. The chart-topping success of WHAM aligns with his past achievements, showcasing commercial success; however, evolving as a leader in hip-hop may necessitate a departure from his established approach.
Michael Saponara: While I don’t expect him to regain the momentum of 2019-2021, WHAM is certainly a positive step forward. The real test will come next month when he releases his upcoming album, Dominique, in February. The question remains: is there still an appetite for another solo album so soon? As Lee Corso famously says, “Not so fast, my friend!”
Andrew Unterberger: This release indicates to me that Lil Baby still enjoys solid fan support. If he were to release the right project in the future, there’s a strong chance it wouldn’t be too late for him to reclaim his former glory. However, I don’t believe this particular project is the one to achieve that; while it’s a solid album, it doesn’t represent a significant progression in his artistry or sound, which may limit its impact beyond his core fanbase.
5. If you could offer Lil Baby guidance for his next album release, what specific direction or focus would you recommend to reignite the excitement surrounding his early 2020s career?
Kyle Denis: I would suggest collaborating closely with a single executive producer—be it Section 8, Twysted Genius, or a fresh face—and aim to recapture the passionate energy that characterized his strongest works. Additionally, ensuring that the tracklists are tight and well-curated, as seen with WHAM, would be beneficial.
Carl Lamarre: I would recommend reducing the use of Autotune and tapping into the more emotional aspects of his music, as showcased in the intro and outro of WHAM. Tracks like “Listen Up” and “Streets Colder” displayed his potential for vulnerability and authenticity, qualities that made songs like “Emotionally Scarred” and “The Bigger Picture” resonate with audiences. If he can channel that same emotional depth into his future work, he could regain the admiration of many fans.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s noteworthy that “The Bigger Picture,” a powerful and insightful track that resonated during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests, has yet to receive a proper follow-up or any overtly political content from Lil Baby. While he may not be interested in pursuing that avenue, his thoughtfulness and refined flow would enable him to excel in that space
