In a moment reminiscent of Frodo’s poignant realization after the destruction of the One Ring in ?The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,? where he reflects, ?It?s executed,? we find ourselves confronted with the closing of a significant chapter in the film industry.

Following a couple of crucial voting extensions prompted by the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires, the nomination voting period for the 97th Academy Awards has officially concluded. While esteemed organizations like the Producers Guild of America and the Writers Guild of America have provided valuable insights into the films expected to shine at this year’s Oscars, the unpredictability of the Academy remains a constant factor. As always, viewers and industry insiders alike can expect the unexpected, with surprises likely to unfold during the nominations.

For veteran awards analysts, the art of forecasting Oscar winners has traditionally required meticulous calculations, impassioned discussions, and discreet, off-the-record exchanges with Academy voters. This year, however, the tone shifted dramatically due to the wildfires that impacted many in Los Angeles. Instead of the usual inquiries about the race, voters took the initiative to reach out, expressing genuine concern for the well-being of journalists and their families. This heartfelt interaction served as a poignant reminder that, amidst the glamour of Hollywood, human connection and empathy prevail.

Once the initial pleasantries were shared, discussions seamlessly transitioned to the realm of cinema, providing a much-needed diversion from the surrounding chaos. For voters, these conversations offered a moment of comfort and respite during a challenging period. Through these exchanges, emerging trends and insights about the current Oscar race began to crystallize. From potential frontrunners for Best Picture to unexpected omissions, we gathered seven critical takeaways from our dialogues with Academy members, along with pressing questions as we prepare for the nominations announcement on January 23.

Will ?The Brutalist? Secure Its Oscar Nominations?

Brady Corbet?s thought-provoking film ?The Brutalist? stands out as a strong contender in this year’s Oscar race, especially following its recent Golden Globe victory. However, some voters expressed that they ?didn?t get to it? or ?didn?t finish it,? referencing its lengthy runtime and intense subject matter. While this may not significantly hinder the film’s chances for nominations?many industry insiders expect it to achieve a minimum of eight nominations?the hesitation could contribute to the lack of traction for supporting actress candidate Felicity Jones. This is particularly notable given that her crucial role does not appear until the latter half of the film.

Do Golden Globe Wins Influence Oscar Nominations?

Despite ongoing discussions surrounding the relevance of the Golden Globes, a win at this prestigious ceremony undeniably carries significant weight in the Oscar race. Several voters have confessed that their watchlists have been influenced by the Globes, particularly highlighting films like ?I?m Still Here,? featuring Fernanda Torres, and ?A Real Pain,? starring Kieran Culkin. Additionally, films such as Jacques Audiard?s ?Emilia Pérez? and Edward Berger?s ?Conclave? have solidified their status as must-watch contenders owing to their category victories. For films that are on the brink of being overlooked, this recognition could mean the critical difference between receiving a nomination or being left out entirely.

Understanding the Divide Between Critics, Audiences, and Academy Voters

This year, the disparity between critics, general audiences, and Academy voters has become strikingly apparent. For instance, critically acclaimed films like RaMell Ross? ?Nickel Boys? and Mike Leigh?s ?Hard Truths? have struggled to convert their critical acclaim into enthusiasm among voters. Conversely, ?Emilia Pérez,? despite its lackluster Rotten Tomatoes scores (76% from critics and 40% from audiences), is widely expected to dominate nominations, potentially becoming the most-nominated non-English-language film in Oscar history.

In a similar vein, James Mangold?s Bob Dylan biopic ?A Full Unknown? has garnered passionate support from Academy members, despite receiving mixed reviews elsewhere (currently holding a 79% rating on Rotten Tomatoes). These instances highlight that Academy voters often operate on their own wavelength, guided more by personal tastes, nostalgic connections, and the emotional resonance of the films rather than external ratings and metrics.

The Impact of “Class Fraud” on Award Nominations

The term ?class fraud? has emerged as a trending topic this awards season, with both social media and voters scrutinizing campaigns that label seemingly lead performances as supporting to enhance their chances for recognition. Performances by Zoe Salda?a in ?Emilia Pérez,? Kieran Culkin in ?A Real Pain,? and Ariana Grande in ?Wicked? are just a few examples that have ignited discussions surrounding their categorization as supporting roles despite significant screen time.

One member of the acting branch expressed, ?I like them, but let?s be honest, she?s a lead,? in reference to Salda?a. These dynamics could lead to unexpected results, split votes, or shocking placements, reminiscent of previous Oscar surprises.

This prompts me to speculate on a few scenarios regarding what nominations might look like on the morning of the announcement. Bear in mind, I?m a journalist attempting to explain something through the lens of mathematics (which is not my forte).

First, let?s consider the status quo for ?Emilia Perez,? with Karla Sofia Gascon potentially becoming the first openly transgender actor nominated in the lead category, while Salda?a continues her frontrunner pursuit in supporting.

But what if there?s a twist?

What if we witness a classic case of category switching, similar to Kate Winslet?s situation with ?The Reader,? where Salda?a?s performance is acknowledged in the lead category alongside her co-star? This would mark the first co-leading duo recognized since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for ?Thelma & Louise? in 1991.

Another possibility is that Gascon is entirely left off the list, with Salda?a standing alone to represent the film in the supporting actress category. According to Academy rules, if a performance ranks among the top five in both lead and supporting categories for the same performance, the category with the most votes determines the nomination. Given the competitive nature of the Best Actress race, it would be intriguing to see how votes are distributed among all contenders.

Finally, the most far-fetched yet potentially plausible scenario could echo the ?Judas and the Black Messiah? (2021) surprise, where LaKeith Stanfield, who had campaigned as a lead actor all season, surprisingly appeared in supporting alongside his Oscar-winning co-star Daniel Kaluuya. After the nominations in 2021, I analyzed the rationale behind this unusual occurrence.

In a conversation with an acting branch member, when I inquired about their voting intentions for Gascon, they quickly responded, ?Oh yes, in supporting, right??

When I clarified that Gascon was in the lead category and Salda?a was in supporting, their immediate reaction was, ?Supporting?!? I?m uncertain about where they ultimately cast their vote, but this exchange raised a potential alarm. How might this influence the race, and who could be pushed out as a result? The implications are complex and difficult to predict.

Sarah Parker

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